New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 14.7% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 11.7% (7.8-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% release floor. Projected score: 3.59-3.29 (6.88 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: New York Yankees 5 @ Chicago White Sox 6 · total 11 vs 7.5

Available related receipts

• MLB

  Boston Red Sox @ Athletics

  Under 10.5 10.5 · 7/29/2026
  win
• MLB

  Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

  Chicago Cubs · 7/29/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays

  Under 7.5 7.5 · 7/30/2026
  win
• MLB

  Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

  Ryan Kreidler Over 1.5 total bases 1.5 · 7/30/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

  Noah Cameron Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 · 7/30/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

  Alex Jackson Over 0.5 hits 0.5 · 7/30/2026
  loss