Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 76.8% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 61.2% (18.3-point probability edge) versus a 20.8% release floor. Projected score: 4.49-3.63 (8.12 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Chicago Cubs 4 @ St. Louis Cardinals 2 · margin +2 vs -1.5

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