Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 6.1% EV (2.8-point probability edge) versus a 5.8% risk-adjusted release floor. Projected score: 6.44-5.38 (11.83 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v1.1.0-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 20,000 seeded plate appearances with starter hooks, bullpen transitions, base/out state, weather, park, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Cincinnati Reds 9 @ Colorado Rockies 6

Available related receipts

• MLB

  San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners

  San Francisco Giants · 7/19/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers

  Miami Marlins · 7/18/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Washington Nationals @ Athletics

  Under 10.5 10.5 · 7/19/2026
  win
• MLB

  Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels

  Jorge Soler Under 0.5 hits 0.5 · 7/19/2026
  win
• MLB

  Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels

  Under 9.5 9.5 · 7/19/2026
  win
• MLB

  St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks

  Andre Pallante Over 3.5 Ks 3.5 · 7/19/2026
  loss