Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies

Update history

Every prior version of this pick. Public receipts — nothing erased.

1. v3: Colorado Rockies (+145)

   Jul 19, 12:16 PM

   Reason: Final stake-only correction after the 70s=1u production mapping deployed; side and price unchanged.

2. v2: Colorado Rockies (+145)

   Jul 19, 12:15 PM

   Reason: Stake display correction only: 71 SLAM Value maps to 3 stars and 1 unit; side and price unchanged.

3. v1: Colorado Rockies (+145)

   Jul 19, 12:07 PM

   Reason: Corrected the retired forced 5-star launch override to the EV-normalized stake tier.

Why the AI made this pick

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 6.1% EV (2.8-point probability edge) versus a 5.8% risk-adjusted release floor. Projected score: 6.44-5.38 (11.83 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v1.1.0-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 20,000 seeded plate appearances with starter hooks, bullpen transitions, base/out state, weather, park, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Cincinnati Reds 9 @ Colorado Rockies 6

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