San Francisco Giants @ Seattle Mariners

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 38.3% EV (14.5-point probability edge) versus a 7.2% risk-adjusted release floor. Projected score: 3.38-3.14 (6.52 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v1.1.0-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 20,000 seeded plate appearances with starter hooks, bullpen transitions, base/out state, weather, park, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: San Francisco Giants 3 @ Seattle Mariners 6

Available related receipts

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