MLBSep 8, 2026, 7:10 PM

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 8 (-105)
total · evidence score 81/100 · 2u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 8.5% exact-price projected EV and a 4.7-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The 5.7% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 3.71-5.58 (9.30 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Cincinnati Reds 2 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 3 · total 5 vs 8

Closing line: 8

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Historical audit coverage

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