MLBSep 9, 2026, 10:10 AM

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+165)
spread · evidence score 79/100 · 1u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 7.6% exact-price projected EV and a 2.9-point probability edge versus a 6.9% release floor. The 3.1% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 3.92-4.65 (8.57 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Minnesota Twins 2 @ Detroit Tigers 7 · margin +5 vs -1.5

Closing line: 1.5

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Historical audit coverage

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