MLBSep 13, 2026, 9:10 AM

Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 9 (-105)
total · evidence score 78/100 · 1u official
Result
Pushed

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 7.5% exact-price projected EV and a 4.2-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The 4.3% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 4.76-5.61 (10.38 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Colorado Rockies 1 @ Detroit Tigers 8 · total 9 vs 9

Closing line: 9

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Historical audit coverage

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