Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 13.7% exact-price projected EV and a 5.4-point probability edge versus a 6.3% release floor. The 9.0% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 4.31-5.47 (9.78 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Los Angeles Angels 5 @ Washington Nationals 6 · margin +1 vs -1.5

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