MLBJul 6, 2026, 7:11 PM

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers (-225)
moneyline · evidence score 84/100 · 3u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

The Los Angeles Dodgers (-2% EV) are playing at home against the Colorado Rockies (-4.1% EV). The Dodgers are a PUBLIC_BIAS_BIG_FAV_LOS_ANGELES_DODGERS, which means the public is likely over-betting them. Both teams are on 0 days rest, and the Rockies have mild travel fatigue. Both bullpens are fresh. The Dodgers' starting pitcher Justin Wrobleski has a 2.80 ERA and 1.01 WHIP (LHP), which is significantly better than Michael Lorenzen's 6.91 ERA and 1.81 WHIP (RHP) for the Rockies. The Dodgers' OPS vs RHP is 0.800, while the Rockies' OPS vs LHP is 0.707. The Dodgers' L10 record is 7-3, with 6.0 RS/g and 4.1 RA/g, much better than the Rockies' 5-5, 7.4 RS/g, 6.3 RA/g. The LINE_VELOCITY for the Dodgers has moved 32 cents against them, while the Rockies' line moved 20 cents in their favor. Pinnacle fair line is Los Angeles Dodgers -211. Sized at 1u — despite the public bias and the line moving against them, the Dodgers have a significant pitching advantage and a much better recent record. The public bias leads to a -5 confidence adjustment. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=93 / 52.8% WR / unproven • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=91 / 48.4% WR / unproven • STEAM_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=78 / 53.8% WR / unproven • STEAM_STALLED — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=70 / 52.9% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=67 / 50.7% WR / unproven • +16 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Colorado Rockies 7 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 8

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