Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 14.7% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (17.2% raw projected EV) and a 9.8-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The public tier follows that conservative EV after all modeled lineup and calibration uncertainty. Projected score: 4.43-3.63 (8.07 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Houston Astros 2 @ San Diego Padres 7 · total 9 vs 9

Available related receipts

• MLB

  Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants

  Houston Astros · 8/10/2026
  win
• MLB

  Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres

  Houston Astros · 8/9/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres

  Cristian Javier Under 2.5 ER 2.5 · 8/9/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

  Under 8 8 · 8/10/2026
  win
• MLB

  New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

  Under 8.5 8.5 · 8/11/2026
  win
• MLB

  Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

  Under 9.5 9.5 · 8/11/2026
  win