MLBJul 2, 2026, 6:41 PM

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 7 (-122)
total · evidence score 68/100 · 2u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The model leans towards the Over 7.5 with a confidence of 60. While there is no clear EV signal, the sharp money (Pinnacle) is on the Under 7, which goes against the public median of 7.5 for the Over. The line velocity shows the over 7.5 price moving up 215c since open, which implies public money is pushing the price up, and the sharps are fading it. However, Pinnacle Fair is 7 @ -113, implying the true total is lower than the displayed line of 7.5. Both bullpens are rested. T-Mobile Park is considered a pitcher-friendly park. Based on the SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE and some price movement against the Over pick, I am selecting Over cautiously. Sized at 2u — confidence 68, as signals are contradictory. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_PARK_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1459 / 55.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=215 / 48.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=180 / 51.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=25 / 44.0% WR / unproven • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=147 / 44.4% WR / toxic_fadeable • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=62 / 50.0% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=7 / 28.6% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=36 / 44.4% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_RIDE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=22 / 50.0% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_CONTRARIAN_EV — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=18 / 44.4% WR / unproven • +11 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Los Angeles Angels 0 @ Seattle Mariners 1 · total 1 vs 7

Closing line: 7.5

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