MLBAug 9, 2026, 1:10 PM

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 9 (-114)
total · evidence score 71/100 · 1u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.7% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (8.8% raw projected EV) and a 5.2-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The public tier follows that conservative EV after all modeled lineup and calibration uncertainty. Projected score: 4.55-3.93 (8.48 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 2 @ Arizona Diamondbacks 4 · total 6 vs 9

Closing line: 8.5

Available related receipts

See available MLB receipts →

Historical audit coverage

Reviewed original-publication snapshots and visible correction history are available only when they reconcile to a verified archive manifest.

Open the audited historical archive →

Review the current product and featured-pick availability.

View current product →