Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Published by Slam Wager
Published pick reasoning
3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 5.5% exact-price projected EV and a 3.0-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The 1.1% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 5.54-3.00 (8.54 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.
Result notes
Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 4 @ Cincinnati Reds 1 · margin +3 vs -1.5
Closing line: -1.5
Available related receipts
- winMLBBaltimore Orioles @ New York MetsUnder 8 8 · 9/14/2026
- lossMLBLos Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati RedsOver 7.5 7.5 · 9/14/2026
- lossMLBBaltimore Orioles @ New York MetsNew York Mets · 9/14/2026
- winMLBChicago White Sox @ Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox +1.5 1.5 · 9/14/2026
- winMLBDetroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue JaysDetroit Tigers +1.5 1.5 · 9/14/2026
- lossMLBAtlanta Braves @ Chicago CubsUnder 9.5 9.5 · 9/14/2026
Historical audit coverage
Reviewed original-publication snapshots and visible correction history are available only when they reconcile to a verified archive manifest.
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