MLBJun 30, 2026, 5:41 PM

Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 11 (-113)
total · evidence score 67/100 · 1u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

Sized at 2u — confidence 67, park factor at Coors Field (Run 116, HR 117) and hot temperature of 86F strongly favor the over. Public bias is toward the under, indicating potential value. Kyle Freeland has a 7.50 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. However, negative EV and moderate price dispersion cap confidence. [SIGNALS FIRED] 5 pattern(s), 3 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 62 (BASIC, expected ROI 1.6%): • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_RIDE — WR: insufficient data: Public total shading still leaves a small edge on our side • MLB_HOT_DRY_HITTER_PARK — WR: insufficient data: Heat and dryness aid offense in a hitter-friendly environment • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — 54.5% WR (live, n=45): Totals market is shaded by public behavior, making the opposite side attractive • RLM_AGAINST — WR: insufficient data: Reverse line movement AGAINST pick — sharp money is fading us • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — 53.2% WR (live, n=1464): Hitter-friendly park factor supports the Over [SIGNALS USED] • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_RIDE — MLB / LIFETIME / n=19 / 52.9% WR / unproven • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / BACKFILL_3Y / n=1464 / 53.2% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / LIFETIME / n=57 / 52.7% WR / unproven • RLM_AGAINST — MLB / LIFETIME / n=28 / 55.6% WR / unproven • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / BACKFILL_3Y / n=1464 / 53.2% WR / healthy

Result notes

Final: Miami Marlins 14 @ Colorado Rockies 3 · total 17 vs 11

Closing line: 11

Available related receipts

See available MLB receipts →

Historical audit coverage

Reviewed original-publication snapshots and visible correction history are available only when they reconcile to a verified archive manifest.

Open the audited historical archive →

Review the current product and featured-pick availability.

View current product →