Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Published pick reasoning

The Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline at +104 has a negative EV of -2.9% against Pinnacle's fair line. The Diamondbacks' starting pitcher, Eduardo Rodriguez, boasts a far superior ERA (2.21), WHIP (1.18), and HR/9 (0.79) compared to the Brewers' Brandon Sproat (ERA 5.28, WHIP 1.33, HR/9 1.68). Rodriguez also has strong L3 starts (7.0IP 1ER 1K, 6.2IP 0ER 5K, 7.0IP 1ER 5K). Both bullpens are tired, though the Brewers' is slightly worse off (153 pitches / 11.5 IP vs 173 pitches / 11.2 IP for ARI). The LINE_VELOCITY shows the Diamondbacks' price has shifted +7c, while the Brewers' price has shifted -5c. The Diamondbacks are also playing at home in Chase Field (Run 104, HR 105), which is a hitter-friendly park. The DATA_CONFIDENCE is 80, so a -4 penalty is not applied. Sized at 3u — confidence 70, driven by a clear starting pitching advantage and favorable line movement. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4878 / 48.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=8/20) / n=2857 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2243 / 53.3% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=548 / 49.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=77 / 48.0% WR / unproven • MLB_BP_GASSED_OPP — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=64 / 48.4% WR / unproven • +1 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Milwaukee Brewers 3 @ Arizona Diamondbacks 2

Available related receipts

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