MLBJul 5, 2026, 4:21 PM

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Under 9.5 (-104)
total · confidence 66/100
Result
Won

Why the AI made this pick

This pick leans to the Under 9.5 goals despite the negative EV of -3.3% against Pinnacle's fair line. The San Diego Padres' LHP starter, JP Sears, has a high ERA of 6.97 and WHIP of 1.74, along with a high HR/9 of 3.48, which would typically favor the Over. However, the Dodgers' RHP Emmet Sheehan also has a high ERA of 5.08. We also consider the Padres bullpen is TIRED with 157 pitches in the last 2 days. The Dodgers' offense, while strong against LHP with an OPS of 0.762, is being weighed against the Padres' poor recent offensive form, averaging only 3.9 RS/g in their last 10 games, and their low season runs per game at 3.94. The Dodgers have strong L10 form with 6.2 RS/g, but the Padres have 7.6 RA/g in their last 10 games, suggesting that their poor pitching has likely skewed their RA/g high. Additionally, Dodger Stadium is a pitcher-friendly park with a Run Index of 95 and HR Index of 100. The weather is 81°F and mostly sunny, which slightly favors hitters but is not extreme enough to override the other signals. The LASOR context for both teams being on a getaway day after a rivalry series and playing 5 games in 5 days could imply tired offenses. The Dodgers have a 'must-win' stakes, which typically means a more focused approach, that could include managing the game for a win rather than a blowout. The LINE_VELOCITY shows the Under price significantly decreasing since opening, suggesting sharp money entering earlier on the Under. All model confidence scores are relatively close, indicating a consistent lean. The DATA_CONFIDENCE is high at 90/100, so no penalty is applied. The LINE_SHOP_VALUE is +1 for the Under, contributing to the confidence. Sized at 2u — confidence 66, multiple signals leaning Under despite a starting pitcher matchup that might have initially indicated Over. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=25 / 44.0% WR / unproven • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=185 / 45.6% WR / toxic_fadeable • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=77 / 48.0% WR / unproven • MLB_BP_GASSED_OPP — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=64 / 48.4% WR / unproven • +6 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: San Diego Padres 5 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 2 · total 7 vs 9.5

Closing line: 9.5

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