MLBJul 3, 2026, 7:10 PM

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers (-250)
moneyline · confidence 80/100
Result
Won

Why the AI made this pick

Confidence 60.0. The Los Angeles Dodgers are a strong favorite in this matchup, with a season record of 57-31 compared to the Padres' 43-43. The Dodgers' starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, has a superior ERA of 2.67 and WHIP of 0.89 over 97.2 innings, while the Padres' Griffin Canning has an ERA of 7.09 and WHIP of 1.66. The Dodgers also have a much stronger L10 record of 8-2, scoring 6.9 RS/g and allowing 4.0 RA/g, for a positive delta of 2.9, compared to the Padres' 4-6 L10 record and a negative delta of -3.1. However, the Dodgers are a public villain team and are heavily biased by public money at -250, and our model shows the fair line at -229, indicating the current odds are inflated. The EV for the Dodgers is -2.5%, which is a strong fade. The price has moved against our pick. Sized at 3u — confidence 80, but with a wide agent disagreement (spread 22), taking it lighter. The Dodgers are a public-favored team, and the value is on fading public favorites that are over-priced. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=17/20)~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=4701 / 51.8% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=17/20) / n=4701 / 51.8% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4446 / 50.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=16/20) / n=2243 / 51.7% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=159 / 46.2% WR / toxic_fadeable • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=70 / 52.9% WR / unproven • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=61 / 44.3% WR / toxic_fadeable • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_ML_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=25 / 80.0% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=15 / 53.3% WR / unproven • LINE_VELOCITY_WITH — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=68 / 49.3% WR / unproven • +15 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: San Diego Padres 3 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 4

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