MLBJul 2, 2026, 7:11 PM

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers (-195)
moneyline · evidence score 68/100 · 1u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

Sized at 1u — confidence 68, as the Dodgers are a clear favorite according to Pinnacle, but without strong EV or additional signals. The Pinnacle fair line is Los Angeles Dodgers -174. The Dodgers feature a strong starting pitcher in Shohei Ohtani (ERA 1.58, WHIP 0.90, K/9 9.72) compared to Michael King (ERA 3.55, WHIP 1.18, K/9 7.75) for the Padres. The Dodgers also have a good L10 record of 7-3 with 5.8 RS/g and 4.5 RA/g, while the Padres are 4-6 with 4.0 RS/g and 6.7 RA/g. Both bullpens are FRESH. The line has stalled for both teams since opening, and there's no strong EV on either side. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=215 / 48.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=180 / 51.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived

Result notes

Final: San Diego Padres 7 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 12

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