MLBJul 3, 2026, 4:15 PM

Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+128)
spread · evidence score 65/100 · 2u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

The Baltimore Orioles -1.5 at +128 has -1.5% EV against the Pinnacle fair line of +131. The Orioles' SP Trevor Rogers has a 4.99 ERA, while the Reds' Brady Singer has a 5.12 ERA. The HP Umpire, Laz Diaz, leans towards the under, with 8.2 R/g (-0.95 vs lg). Both teams have weak L10 records (4-6 and 3-7 respectively). Cincinnati has a solid OPS vs LHP (.761), which is a slight edge against Rogers. The park, GABP, is very hitter-friendly (Run 112, HR 122). Sized at 1u — neutral signals, with no clear edge. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4446 / 50.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=3533 / 51.9% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.0% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.0% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=14/20) / n=1464 / 51.6% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_SOFT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=75 / 49.3% WR / unproven • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER / n=16 / 62.5% WR / healthy

Result notes

Final: Baltimore Orioles 3 @ Cincinnati Reds 0 · margin +3 vs -1.5

Closing line: -1.5

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