MLBJul 3, 2026, 4:15 PM

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
New York Mets -1.5 (+155)
spread · evidence score 81/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

Numbers-first live pick: side locked by best positive market edge before AI narration. EV unavailable; using market-dislocation signals. Best available price +155 @ draftkings. Pinnacle fair: New York Mets +1.5 -186 (65.1%) / Atlanta Braves -1.5 +186 (34.9%). EV board: New York Mets +1.5: -2.4% (best -200 @ betrivers) | Atlanta Braves -1.5: -3.9% (best +175 @ bovada). Sharp/public: SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_SPREAD: Pinnacle -1.5 vs public median 1.5 on Atlanta Braves (Δ-3pt — sharps disagree with public shorter) || SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_SPREAD: Pinnacle 1.5 vs public median -1.5 on New York Mets (Δ+3pt — sharps disagree with public longer). Market signals: STEAM: 5 books range 3pts (median 1.5) || BOOK_DISAGREEMENT_HIGH: line spread 3pts across US books || PRICE_DISPERSION: 365c spread across US books (volatility, not edge). [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4446 / 50.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.0% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.0% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_SOFT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=75 / 49.3% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=70 / 52.9% WR / unproven • STEAM_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=50 / 58.0% WR / unproven • STEAM_STALLED — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=42 / 57.1% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_ML_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=25 / 80.0% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=15 / 53.3% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=44 / 50.0% WR / unproven • +12 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: New York Mets 3 @ Atlanta Braves 5 · margin -2 vs -1.5

Closing line: 1.5

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