MLBJul 2, 2026, 7:11 PM

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Over 9 (-114)
total · evidence score 69/100 · 2u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

The model leans towards the Over 9 with a confidence of 61. There is a PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE favoring the Over as the books are shading towards the Over value, which has a historical CLV multiplier of 1.21. Both bullpens are fresh. Dodger Stadium is relatively neutral with a Run Index of 95 and HR Index of 100. Shohei Ohtani has an excellent ERA of 1.58 over 79.2 IP this season, which would historically lean towards the Under. However, the Dodgers in their L10 are averaging 5.8 RS/g, and the Padres are allowing 6.7 RA/g over their L10. This strong offensive output and defensive struggles outweigh the individual pitcher's ERA. Sized at 2u — confidence 69, with minor market and form signals. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=215 / 48.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=180 / 51.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=147 / 44.4% WR / toxic_fadeable • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=62 / 50.0% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=7 / 28.6% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_LINE_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=36 / 44.4% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_RIDE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=22 / 50.0% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_CONTRARIAN_EV — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=18 / 44.4% WR / unproven • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_ML_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=17 / 82.3% WR / healthy • CLV_MULTIPLIER_APPLIED — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=16 / 50.0% WR / unproven • PUBLIC_FADE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=12 / 63.6% WR / unproven • +9 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: San Diego Padres 7 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 12 · total 19 vs 9

Closing line: 9.5

Available related receipts

See available MLB receipts →

Historical audit coverage

Reviewed original-publication snapshots and visible correction history are available only when they reconcile to a verified archive manifest.

Open the audited historical archive →

Review the current product and featured-pick availability.

View current product →