MLBJul 5, 2026, 4:21 PM

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers (-220)
moneyline · evidence score 77/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The Los Angeles Dodgers are a strong home favorite with an 8-2 L10 record, averaging 6.2 RS/g while the Padres are 2-8 in their L10, averaging 3.9 RS/g. The Dodgers also have a much more effective offense against left-handed pitching, with an OPS of .762 compared to the Padres' .675 OPS vs RHP. The Padres' starting pitcher, JP Sears, has a high ERA of 6.97 and WHIP of 1.74, while the Dodgers' pitcher, Emmet Sheehan, has a better ERA of 5.08 and WHIP of 1.27. Additionally, the Padres' bullpen is tired, throwing 157 pitches in the last 2 days, while the Dodgers' bullpen is fresh with only 76 pitches. The Dodgers are a 'must-win' team, adding to their motivation. The -2.5% EV on the Dodgers is offset by the public bias and the clear L10 and pitching edges. Sized at 3u — confidence 77 with some negative EV, but strong fundamental advantages. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4878 / 48.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=3533 / 51.9% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_UMP_PITCHER_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=16 / 62.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=84 / 52.4% WR / unproven • +20 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: San Diego Padres 5 @ Los Angeles Dodgers 2

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