MLBJul 6, 2026, 4:16 PM

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Atlanta Braves (-126)
moneyline · evidence score 70/100 · 2u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The Atlanta Braves, despite a -2.4% EV, are facing a New York Mets team with a -3.4% EV. While both teams have negative EV, the Braves bullpen, though tired with 142 pitches in the last 2 days, is facing a Mets team that has a tired bullpen as well. The Braves' L10 record is 4-6, with 4.8 RS/g, slightly better than the Mets' 3-7 with 3.7 RS/g. The Mets' starting pitcher, Freddy Peralta, has a 4.81 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, which is worse than Reynaldo López's 3.31 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Both teams are on 0 days rest, and the Braves are off a rivalry game. The LINE_VELOCITY shows a shift for the Braves from -126 to -132, implying a slight trend in their favor, though it has since stalled. Pinnacle fair line is Atlanta Braves -119. Sized at 1u — minimal confidence given no positive EV or steam, but subtle signals lean to the Braves as fair value at this number. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4878 / 48.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy / context-derived • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=199 / 46.9% WR / toxic_fadeable • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=91 / 48.4% WR / unproven • STEAM_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=78 / 53.8% WR / unproven • STEAM_STALLED — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=70 / 52.9% WR / unproven • +2 more signal tag(s)

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Bad Beat

Lost in 10-inning game after being tied at the end of regulation.

Result notes

Final: New York Mets 7 @ Atlanta Braves 6

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