MLBJul 6, 2026, 4:46 PM

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
St. Louis Cardinals (-108)
moneyline · evidence score 74/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

The St. Louis Cardinals (-3.2% EV) are playing at home against the Milwaukee Brewers (-4.2% EV). The Cardinals have a young core, which can sometimes lead to volatility but also high upside. Both teams are on 0 days rest, and the Brewers have a mild fatigue factor from travel. While both teams have fresh bullpens, the Cardinals' starting pitcher Dustin May (ERA 4.80, WHIP 1.27) is slightly worse than Shane Drohan (ERA 3.12, WHIP 1.23). However, the Brewers' OPS vs RHP is 0.759, while the Cardinals' OPS vs LHP is 0.715. The Cardinals' L10 record is 5-5 with 4.4 RS/g and 3.0 RA/g, which suggests a slightly better recent pitching performance than the Brewers (6-4, 4.2 RS/g, 3.8 RA/g). The Brewers are also in a 'must-win' situation, which can add pressure. Pinnacle's fair line is St. Louis Cardinals -101. Sized at 1u — very slight lean to the Cardinals, but minimal confidence due to conflicting signals and no clear market trend. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy • TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=10/20)~alias:TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY / n=4754 / 51.6% WR / healthy • TRAVEL_LONG_TRIP_3PLUS_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=10/20) / n=4754 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~alias:MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_FATIGUE_HEAVY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4701 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.0% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.0% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TRAVEL_GETAWAY_DAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=9/20) / n=1800 / 51.9% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy / context-derived • TEAM_AGE_YOUNG_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=567 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TEAM_AGE_OLD_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=10/20) / n=325 / 53.9% WR / healthy • +12 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: Milwaukee Brewers 4 @ St. Louis Cardinals 3

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