New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 11.4% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 4.7% (6.2-point probability edge) versus a 4.2% release floor. Projected score: 3.74-5.04 (8.78 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: New York Yankees 2 @ Chicago Cubs 0 · total 2 vs 9

Available related receipts

• MLB

  Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

  Paul Skenes Under 17.5 Outs 17.5 · 7/31/2026
  win
• MLB

  New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs

  Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 Outs 17.5 · 7/31/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

  Hunter Greene Under 17.5 Outs 17.5 · 7/31/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

  Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 hits 0.5 · 7/31/2026
  win
• MLB

  Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles

  Brandon Marsh Over 1.5 total bases 1.5 · 7/31/2026
  loss
• MLB

  St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays

  Under 7.5 7.5 · 7/31/2026
  win