Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 8.6% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 5.3% (4.5-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% release floor. Projected score: 6.09-4.88 (10.97 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Pittsburgh Pirates 2 @ Cincinnati Reds 3

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