Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 8.0% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 4.5% (3.8-point probability edge) versus a 4.5% release floor. Projected score: 4.15-3.72 (7.87 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Miami Marlins 2 @ New York Mets 4

Available related receipts

• MLB

  Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

  Nolan McLean Under 17.5 Outs 17.5 · 7/30/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

  Pittsburgh Pirates · 7/30/2026
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• MLB

  Miami Marlins @ New York Mets

  Joe Mack Over 1.5 total bases 1.5 · 7/30/2026
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• MLB

  Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers

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• MLB

  New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs

  Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 Outs 17.5 · 7/31/2026
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• MLB

  New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs

  Under 9 9 · 7/31/2026
  win