Miami Marlins @ New York Mets
By Slam Wager AI
Why the AI made this pick
3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 8.0% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 4.5% (3.8-point probability edge) versus a 4.5% release floor. Projected score: 4.15-3.72 (7.87 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.
Result notes
Final: Miami Marlins 2 @ New York Mets 4
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- winMLBAtlanta Braves @ New York MetsUnder 7.5 7.5 · 7/29/2026
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