San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.1% exact-price projected EV and a 2.5-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The -0.4% uncertainty-adjusted lower EV remains visible for risk audit, while the allocator applies that uncertainty once through conservative stake sizing. Projected score: 3.72-3.24 (6.96 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: projected nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: San Diego Padres 6 @ San Francisco Giants 4 · total 10 vs 7

Available related receipts

• MLB

  San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

  Logan Webb Under 17.5 Outs 17.5 · 9/13/2026
  win
• MLB

  Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

  Under 8 8 · 9/13/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

  Over 7.5 7.5 · 9/14/2026
  loss
• MLB

  Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

  Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -1.5 · 9/14/2026
  win
• MLB

  Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets

  Under 8 8 · 9/14/2026
  win
• MLB

  Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets

  New York Mets · 9/14/2026
  loss