MLBJul 3, 2026, 5:10 PM

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

By Slam Wager AI

AI Pick
Over 11 (-110)
total · confidence 73/100
Result
Won

Why the AI made this pick

The model leans towards the Over 11 despite the negative EV, primarily due to the PUBLIC_BIAS_UNDER_OVERLOAD signal, which indicates books are shading prices toward the Over. The LINE_VELOCITY for the Over 11 has moved in our favor by 15c. The game is in Coors Field, which has a very high Run (116) and HR (117) index, strongly favoring the Over. The Rockies' SP Tomoyuki Sugano has a high ERA (4.80) and HR/9 (1.71), and his L3 starts include 7ER and 6ER outings. Both bullpens are fresh. The Rockies average 6.1 RS/g in their L10, supporting an Over Play. Sized at 3u — confidence 73, due to strong park factor and public fade, with positive line movement. [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=4446 / 50.3% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=14/20) / n=1464 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_COORS_HANGOVER_VISITOR_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=62 / 53.2% WR / unproven / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=18/20) / n=25 / 47.0% WR / unproven • DATA_CONFIDENCE_LOW — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=159 / 46.2% WR / toxic_fadeable • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=70 / 52.9% WR / unproven • LINE_VELOCITY_AGAINST — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=61 / 44.3% WR / toxic_fadeable • SHARP_VS_PUBLIC_ML_DISAGREE — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=25 / 80.0% WR / healthy • PUBLIC_BIAS_OVER_OVERLOAD — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=15 / 53.3% WR / unproven • LINE_VELOCITY_WITH — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=68 / 49.3% WR / unproven • +14 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: San Francisco Giants 3 @ Colorado Rockies 15 · total 18 vs 11

Closing line: 11.5

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