MLBJun 24, 2026, 3:41 PM

Seattle Mariners @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick

Under 8 (-115)

total · evidence score 78/100 · 3u official

Result

Lost

Published pick reasoning

Sized at 2u — The Pinnacle Fair line for Under 8 is -103 (50.7%), representing a strong 5.2% EV. The Public Bias on this total is PUBLIC_BIAS_UNDER_OVERLOAD, where books are shading towards the OVER value, making the Under a contrarian play with positive EV, hence the PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE signal. The data confidence is 86/100. Pitchers Bryan Woo (ERA 3.94, WHIP 1.00) and Braxton Ashcraft (ERA 3.18, WHIP 1.10) both have solid ERAs and WHIPs, and the park (PNC Park) is pitcher-friendly (Run 92, HR 90). The L10 RS/g for Seattle is 3.2 and Pittsburgh is 4.2, both low. [SIGNALS FIRED] 4 pattern(s), 4 cluster(s) → deterministic confidence 78 (BASIC, expected ROI 1.7%): • EV_5PCT — 55.1% WR (n≈620): Strong market EV remains at the best available number • PUBLIC_TOTAL_SHADE_FADE — 53.3% WR (n≈690): Totals market is shaded by public behavior, making the opposite side attractive • CLV_PRIOR_POSITIVE — 54.8% WR (n≈820): Similar signals have historically beaten the close, supporting a stronger prior • MLB_SP_PARK_STACK — 54.4% WR (n≈280): Pitcher profile and park traits stack in our favor

Result notes

Final: Seattle Mariners 1 @ Pittsburgh Pirates 11 · total 12 vs 8

Closing line: 7.5

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