MLBAug 19, 2026, 3:40 PM

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 8.5 (-114)
total · evidence score 71/100 · 1u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 4.5% uncertainty-adjusted EV at the offered price (8.8% raw projected EV) and a 4.7-point probability edge versus a 4.0% release floor. The public tier follows that conservative EV after all modeled lineup and calibration uncertainty. Projected score: 3.57-4.31 (7.88 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.8.1-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

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Bad Beat

Final total 9 — landed 0.5 points from the 8.5 line.

Result notes

Final: St. Louis Cardinals 4 @ Cincinnati Reds 5 · total 9 vs 8.5

Closing line: 8.5

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Historical audit coverage

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