CF Montreal @ Nashville SC

Why the AI made this pick

3★ official model pick (1u). Frozen distribution shows 6.2% EV (5.7-point probability edge) versus a 6.0% risk-adjusted release floor. Projected score: 1.09-2.01 (3.10 total). Model: mls_goal_model soccer-event-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: projected starting XIs → 30,000 seeded 90-minute match-event simulations with shared tempo, game state, player shot allocation, goalkeeper saves, cards/red-card effects, exact scores and regulation draws → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: CF Montreal 0 @ Nashville SC 1

Related picks

• MLS

  FC Dallas @ Portland Timbers

  FC Dallas · 7/22/2026
  loss
• MLS

  St. Louis City SC @ LA Galaxy

  St. Louis City SC · 7/22/2026
  win
• MLS

  Seattle Sounders FC @ Austin FC

  Austin FC · 7/22/2026
  win
• MLS

  Seattle Sounders FC @ Austin FC

  Austin FC · 7/22/2026
  win
• MLS

  Minnesota United FC @ Sporting Kansas City

  Minnesota United FC · 7/22/2026
  loss
• MLS

  Minnesota United FC @ Sporting Kansas City

  Minnesota United FC · 7/22/2026
  loss