Seattle Sounders FC @ Austin FC
Published by Slam Wager
Published pick reasoning
5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 48.3% EV (16.7-point probability edge) versus a 10.6% risk-adjusted release floor. Projected score: 1.60-1.37 (2.97 total). Model: mls_goal_model soccer-event-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: projected starting XIs → 30,000 seeded 90-minute match-event simulations with shared tempo, game state, player shot allocation, goalkeeper saves, cards/red-card effects, exact scores and regulation draws → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.
Result notes
Final: Seattle Sounders FC 1 @ Austin FC 3
Available related receipts
- winMLSSeattle Sounders FC @ Austin FCAustin FC · 7/22/2026
- winMLSCF Montreal @ Nashville SCNashville SC · 7/22/2026
- winMLSSt. Louis City SC @ LA GalaxySt. Louis City SC · 7/22/2026
- lossMLSFC Dallas @ Portland TimbersFC Dallas · 7/22/2026
- lossMLSSeattle Sounders FC @ Philadelphia UnionSeattle Sounders FC · 7/25/2026
- lossMLSInter Miami CF @ CF MontrealCF Montreal · 7/25/2026
Historical audit coverage
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