MLSJul 22, 2026, 4:30 PM

Chicago Fire @ Inter Miami CF

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Chicago Fire (+170)
moneyline · evidence score 98/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 27.7% EV (11.8-point probability edge) versus a 7.2% risk-adjusted release floor. Projected score: 1.95-2.07 (4.02 total). Model: mls_goal_model soccer-event-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: projected starting XIs → 30,000 seeded 90-minute match-event simulations with shared tempo, game state, player shot allocation, goalkeeper saves, cards/red-card effects, exact scores and regulation draws → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Chicago Fire 2 @ Inter Miami CF 3

Available related receipts

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Historical audit coverage

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