North Texas Mean Green @ Texas State Bobcats

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 69.1% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 56.3% (30.1-point probability edge) versus a 5.5% release floor. Projected score: 44.75-16.19 (60.95 total). Model: football_possession_sim_v2 football-possession-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: 50,000 seeded NCAAF possession simulations with down-and-distance, clock, score state, play calling, sacks, turnovers, penalties, fourth downs, field goals, punts, overtime and player allocation inside one coherent game world. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: North Texas Mean Green 35 @ Texas State Bobcats 49

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