Western Michigan Broncos @ Rice Owls

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 25.6% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 15.2% (13.1-point probability edge) versus a 5.5% release floor. Projected score: 23.37-9.98 (33.35 total). Model: football_possession_sim_v2 football-possession-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: 50,000 seeded NCAAF possession simulations with down-and-distance, clock, score state, play calling, sacks, turnovers, penalties, fourth downs, field goals, punts, overtime and player allocation inside one coherent game world. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Western Michigan Broncos 28 @ Rice Owls 21 · total 49 vs 43.5

Available related receipts

• NCAAF

  Florida Gators @ Auburn Tigers

  Florida Gators -2.5 -2.5 · 9/19/2026
  win
• NCAAF

  North Dakota Fighting Hawks @ Nebraska Cornhuskers

  Over 55.5 55.5 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  Ohio Bobcats @ South Alabama Jaguars

  Over 48.5 48.5 · 9/19/2026
  win
• NCAAF

  Delaware State Hornets @ South Florida Bulls

  Under 61 61 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  East Texas A&M Lions @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane

  East Texas A&M Lions +41 41 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  South Dakota Coyotes @ Boise State Broncos

  Over 60.5 60.5 · 9/19/2026
  win