East Texas A&M Lions @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 20.5% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 10.5% (10.9-point probability edge) versus a 5.5% release floor. Projected score: 11.28-39.57 (50.85 total). Model: football_possession_sim_v2 football-possession-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: 50,000 seeded NCAAF possession simulations with down-and-distance, clock, score state, play calling, sacks, turnovers, penalties, fourth downs, field goals, punts, overtime and player allocation inside one coherent game world. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: East Texas A&M Lions 0 @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane 42 · margin -42 vs 41

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