North Dakota State Bison @ Sacramento State Hornets

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 64.3% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 54.4% (33.7-point probability edge) versus a 5.5% release floor. Projected score: 61.16-3.37 (64.53 total). Model: football_possession_sim_v2 football-possession-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: 50,000 seeded NCAAF possession simulations with down-and-distance, clock, score state, play calling, sacks, turnovers, penalties, fourth downs, field goals, punts, overtime and player allocation inside one coherent game world. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: North Dakota State Bison 31 @ Sacramento State Hornets 10 · margin +21 vs -26.5

Available related receipts

• NCAAF

  Montana Grizzlies @ Oregon State Beavers

  Montana Grizzlies +17.5 17.5 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  James Madison Dukes @ San Diego State Aztecs

  James Madison Dukes · 9/19/2026
  win
• NCAAF

  Purdue Boilermakers @ UCLA Bruins

  Over 52.5 52.5 · 9/19/2026
  win
• NCAAF

  South Dakota Coyotes @ Boise State Broncos

  Over 60.5 60.5 · 9/19/2026
  win
• NCAAF

  East Texas A&M Lions @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane

  East Texas A&M Lions +41 41 · 9/19/2026
  loss
• NCAAF

  Delaware State Hornets @ South Florida Bulls

  Under 61 61 · 9/19/2026
  loss