James Madison Dukes @ San Diego State Aztecs

Published pick reasoning

5★ official model pick (3u). Frozen distribution shows 57.7% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 46.0% (27.5-point probability edge) versus a 5.5% release floor. Projected score: 36.72-13.10 (49.82 total). Model: football_possession_sim_v2 football-possession-sim-v2.0.0-ts. Inputs: 50,000 seeded NCAAF possession simulations with down-and-distance, clock, score state, play calling, sacks, turnovers, penalties, fourth downs, field goals, punts, overtime and player allocation inside one coherent game world. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: James Madison Dukes 26 @ San Diego State Aztecs 13

Available related receipts

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