Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles: Pete Alonso Under 0.5 runs (-110) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap
Recap of our MLB AI player_prop pick on Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles. The play (Pete Alonso Under 0.5 runs at -110, 3★ confidence) lost.
Why we made this MLB player_prop pick
Judgment prop — picked by signal angle MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER. Median retail -110 across 2 books (implied 52.4%); no Pinnacle pair on this exact line (unanchored). PROJ: 88.6% Under — 0.029/PA × 4.0 PA (lineup unposted) → mean 0.12; vs RHP split used (290 PA); SP Luinder Avila allows +1% vs league (no anchor to compare). [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived
How the Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles pick lost
Pete Alonso finished with 1 (R) vs line 0.5