Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates: Christian Yelich Over 0.5 runs (-125) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap
Recap of our MLB AI player_prop pick on Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates. The play (Christian Yelich Over 0.5 runs at -125, 1★ confidence) lost.
Why we made this MLB player_prop pick
Judgment prop — picked by signal angle MLB_LINEUP_TOP_RUNS. Median retail -125 across 2 books (implied 55.6%); no Pinnacle pair on this exact line (unanchored). PROJ: 19.0% Over — 0.044/PA × 4.7 PA (slot 1) → mean 0.21; vs RHP split used (183 PA); SP Braxton Ashcraft allows -1% vs league (no anchor to compare). [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_TEAM_BIG_VS_RHP_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=243 / 51.5% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=212 / 50.0% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_LINEUP_TOP_RUNS — MLB / NO_CALIBRATION_ROW_YET / n=0 / WR n/a / unproven
How the Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates pick lost
Christian Yelich finished with 0 (R) vs line 0.5