Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates: Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 hits (-220) lost — MLB AI Pick Recap
Recap of our MLB AI player_prop pick on Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates. The play (Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 hits at -220, 5★ confidence) lost.
Why we made this MLB player_prop pick
Judgment prop — picked by signal angles MLB_PLATOON_BIG_R_HOME + MLB_PLAYER_PLATOON_EDGE + MLB_HOT_BAT. Median retail -220 across 2 books (implied 68.8%); no Pinnacle pair on this exact line (unanchored). PROJ: 74.0% Over — 0.277/PA × 4.1 PA (slot 6) → mean 1.14; vs RHP split used (261 PA); SP Brandon Sproat allows -4% vs league (no anchor to compare). [SIGNALS USED] • MLB_DAYGAME_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=963 / 48.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_TEAM_BIG_VS_RHP_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=243 / 51.5% WR / healthy • MLB_DAY_AFTER_NIGHT_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=212 / 50.0% WR / toxic_fadeable • MLB_PLATOON_BIG_R_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=117 / 54.5% WR / healthy • MLB_PLAYER_PLATOON_EDGE — MLB / NO_CALIBRATION_ROW_YET / n=0 / WR n/a / unproven • MLB_HOT_BAT — MLB / NO_CALIBRATION_ROW_YET / n=0 / WR n/a / unproven
How the Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates pick lost
Nick Gonzales finished with 0 (H) vs line 0.5