Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers: Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 runs (-115) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap
Recap of our MLB AI player_prop pick on Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers. The play (Kevin McGonigle Over 0.5 runs at -115, 1★ confidence) cashed.
Why we made this MLB player_prop pick
Judgment prop — picked by signal angle MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER. Median retail -115 across 2 books (implied 53.5%); no Pinnacle pair on this exact line (unanchored). PROJ: 14.0% Over — 0.032/PA × 4.7 PA (slot 1) → mean 0.15; vs RHP split used (289 PA); SP Aaron Nola allows +5% vs league (no anchor to compare). [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived
How the Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers pick cashed
Kevin McGonigle finished with 1 (R) vs line 0.5