Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers: Colt Keith Over 0.5 hits (-230) cashed — MLB AI Pick Recap
Recap of our MLB AI player_prop pick on Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers. The play (Colt Keith Over 0.5 hits at -230, 5★ confidence) cashed.
Why we made this MLB player_prop pick
Judgment prop — picked by signal angles MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER + MLB_PLAYER_PLATOON_EDGE. Median retail -230 across 5 books (implied 69.7%); no Pinnacle pair on this exact line (unanchored). PROJ: 75.4% Over — 0.269/PA × 4.5 PA (slot 2) → mean 1.22; vs RHP split used (244 PA); SP Aaron Nola allows +11% vs league (no anchor to compare). [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1875 / 53.0% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1474 / 51.5% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_OPENER_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=782 / 49.5% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_PLAYER_PLATOON_EDGE — MLB / NO_CALIBRATION_ROW_YET / n=0 / WR n/a / unproven
How the Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers pick cashed
Colt Keith finished with 1 (H) vs line 0.5