MLB Player Prop Research July 21, 2026: How Our Numbers Did on Brandon Sproat, Michael Lorenzen, Framber Valdez

Our research board published evidence ratings on 5 MLB player props for July 21, 2026 and the graded outcomes landed on 4/5 hit. This is a model-accuracy check, not a betting record — these props are research output, not picks we bet or track.

Brandon Sproat — Brandon Sproat Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 Strikeouts

Hit

New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers

Settled price

+123

Evidence rating

89/100

Implied by odds

44.8%

Michael Lorenzen — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 Ks 3.5 Strikeouts

Missed

Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies

Settled price

-122

Evidence rating

79/100

Implied by odds

55%

Framber Valdez — Framber Valdez Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 Strikeouts

Hit

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs

Settled price

-109

Evidence rating

79/100

Implied by odds

52.2%

Noah Schultz — Noah Schultz Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 Strikeouts

Hit

Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers

Settled price

-148

Evidence rating

79/100

Implied by odds

59.7%

David Peterson — David Peterson Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 Strikeouts

Hit

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs

Settled price

-143

Evidence rating

78/100

Implied by odds

58.8%

What this is (and isn't)

These props are research outputs from the engine that runs our board. The evidence rating summarizes input strength and agreement; it is not a predicted hit percentage. Results are graded after games for transparency. They are not picks and are not part of our tracked betting record. For the actual picks we publish and stand behind, grab featured-pick availability — or learn how odds convert to probabilities.