MLB
5 props
Research
July 21, 2026MLB Player Prop Research July 21, 2026: Our Numbers on Brandon Sproat, Michael Lorenzen, Framber Valdez
5 MLB player props our model priced today, each with its hit probability next to the sportsbook's implied odds. Where the two numbers disagree is where the research gets interesting. These are not betting picks — they're the model's read on the market, published for transparency.
Brandon Sproat — Brandon Sproat Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 Strikeouts
Pending
New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
Odds
+123
Our hit chance
89%
Implied by odds
44.8%
Michael Lorenzen — Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 Ks 3.5 Strikeouts
Pending
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies
Odds
-122
Our hit chance
79%
Implied by odds
55%
Framber Valdez — Framber Valdez Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 Strikeouts
Pending
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs
Odds
-109
Our hit chance
79%
Implied by odds
52.2%
Noah Schultz — Noah Schultz Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 Strikeouts
Pending
Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers
Odds
-148
Our hit chance
79%
Implied by odds
59.7%
David Peterson — David Peterson Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 Strikeouts
Pending
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs
Odds
-143
Our hit chance
78%
Implied by odds
58.8%
What this is (and isn't)
These props are research from the same calibrated engine that runs our board — the model's hit probability vs the market's implied number, graded after games for accuracy. They are not picks and are not part of our tracked betting record. For the actual picks we publish and stand behind, grab today's free pick — or learn how odds convert to probabilities.