MLB
10 props
Research
Model: 5/10 hit
July 23, 2026MLB Player Prop Research July 23, 2026: How Our Numbers Did on Gavin Williams, Taj Bradley, Troy Melton
Our research board published evidence ratings on 10 MLB player props for July 23, 2026 and the graded outcomes landed on 5/10 hit. This is a model-accuracy check, not a betting record — these props are research output, not picks we bet or track.
Gavin Williams — Gavin Williams Under 6.5 Ks 6.5 Strikeouts
Missed
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Settled price
-102
Evidence rating
92/100
Implied by odds
50.5%
Taj Bradley — Taj Bradley Under 6.5 Ks 6.5 Strikeouts
Hit
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Settled price
-150
Evidence rating
83/100
Implied by odds
60%
Troy Melton — Troy Melton Under 5.5 Ks 5.5 Strikeouts
Hit
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
Settled price
-115
Evidence rating
73/100
Implied by odds
53.5%
Shane Bieber — Shane Bieber Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 Strikeouts
Hit
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
Settled price
-157
Evidence rating
72/100
Implied by odds
61.1%
Jase Bowen — Jase Bowen Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits
Missed
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Settled price
+114
Evidence rating
72/100
Implied by odds
46.7%
Petey Halpin — Petey Halpin Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits
Missed
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
Settled price
-115
Evidence rating
70/100
Implied by odds
53.5%
Mike Yastrzemski — Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits
Hit
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Settled price
-128
Evidence rating
70/100
Implied by odds
56.1%
Ty France — Ty France Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits
Hit
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Settled price
-159
Evidence rating
70/100
Implied by odds
61.4%
Jim Jarvis — Jim Jarvis Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits
Missed
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Settled price
-155
Evidence rating
70/100
Implied by odds
60.8%
Matt Olson — Matt Olson Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits
Missed
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
Settled price
-210
Evidence rating
70/100
Implied by odds
67.7%
What this is (and isn't)
These props are research outputs from the engine that runs our board. The evidence rating summarizes input strength and agreement; it is not a predicted hit percentage. Results are graded after games for transparency. They are not picks and are not part of our tracked betting record. For the actual picks we publish and stand behind, grab featured-pick availability — or learn how odds convert to probabilities.
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