MLB Player Prop Research July 24, 2026: Our Numbers on Tarik Skubal, Roki Sasaki, Trey Yesavage

5 MLB player props our model priced today, each with its hit probability next to the sportsbook's implied odds. Where the two numbers disagree is where the research gets interesting. These are not betting picks — they're the model's read on the market, published for transparency.

Tarik Skubal — Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 Ks 7.5 Strikeouts

Pending

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

Odds

+120

Our hit chance

77%

Implied by odds

45.5%

Roki Sasaki — Roki Sasaki Under 4.5 Ks 4.5 Strikeouts

Pending

Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets

Odds

+108

Our hit chance

71%

Implied by odds

48.1%

Trey Yesavage — Trey Yesavage Under 5.5 Ks 5.5 Strikeouts

Pending

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

Odds

-132

Our hit chance

70%

Implied by odds

56.9%

Shane McClanahan — Shane McClanahan Under 5.5 Ks 5.5 Strikeouts

Pending

Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays

Odds

-150

Our hit chance

70%

Implied by odds

60%

Jake Bauers — Jake Bauers Over 0.5 hits 0.5 Hits

Pending

Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers

Odds

-162

Our hit chance

70%

Implied by odds

61.8%

What this is (and isn't)

These props are research from the same calibrated engine that runs our board — the model's hit probability vs the market's implied number, graded after games for accuracy. They are not picks and are not part of our tracked betting record. For the actual picks we publish and stand behind, grab today's free pick — or learn how odds convert to probabilities.