MLBJul 29, 2026, 4:10 PM

Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 7.5 (-120)
total · evidence score 85/100 · 2u official
Result
Won

Published pick reasoning

4★ official model pick (2u). Frozen distribution shows 10.0% projected EV at the offered price; the uncertainty-adjusted lower bound is 7.1% (5.5-point probability edge) versus a 4.0% release floor. Projected score: 3.92-3.06 (6.98 total). Model: mlb_pa_simulation mlb-pa-sim-v2.7.8-ts. Inputs: confirmed nine-man batting orders → 50,000 seeded plate appearances with pitch-family matchups, state-dependent starter hooks, role-aware bullpen transitions, shared run regimes, base/out state, weather, park, umpire, defense, steals, double plays, extra innings and walk-offs → one coherent game-and-player distribution. Historical signals cannot add release points; only matured forward-tested residual effects may adjust the underlying score means.

Result notes

Final: Atlanta Braves 2 @ New York Mets 3 · total 5 vs 7.5

Closing line: 7.5

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