MLBJul 4, 2026, 6:39 PM

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Under 8.5 (-110)
total · evidence score 67/100 · 2u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

Pinnacle fair line for Under 8.5 is -104 (50.9%), giving us a negative EV of -2.8% at -110. The line has stalled since open. Both bullpens are fresh. Red Sox SP Ranger Suarez has a strong ERA of 2.94, WHIP of 1.13, and a low HR/9 of 0.51. Angels SP Ryan Johnson has a high ERA of 7.40 and WHIP of 1.52. Angel Stadium has neutral park factors. The wind is blowing OUT to CF at 7mph, which leans towards the over, but Suarez's low HR/9 mitigates this. Both teams are on a getaway day. The Red Sox offense has a low OPS of 0.676 vs RHP. Sized at 2u — confidence 67, but with converging signals despite the negative EV. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=16/20) / n=2243 / 51.7% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20)~alias:MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy • MLB_PARK_HITTER_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=1464 / 53.2% WR / healthy / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_TIGHT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=25 / 44.0% WR / unproven • STEAM_WITH — MLB / MLB/LIFETIME / n=59 / 55.9% WR / unproven • +3 more signal tag(s)

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Bad Beat

Final total 9 — landed 0.5 points from the 8.5 line.

Result notes

Final: Boston Red Sox 8 @ Los Angeles Angels 1 · total 9 vs 8.5

Closing line: 8.5

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