MLBJul 4, 2026, 5:09 PM

St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

Published by Slam Wager

Published Pick
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+140)
spread · evidence score 71/100 · 3u official
Result
Lost

Published pick reasoning

This is a LEAN pick, with a baseline confidence of 60. Pinnacle's fair line for Chicago Cubs -1.5 is +143, indicating a -1.4% EV at the best available price of +140. The DATA_CONFIDENCE is 90. The Cubs have a strong L10 record of 8-2 with 7.4 RS/g; however, the Cardinals also have a strong recent SU L5 record of 4-1. The Cardinals are on a sandwich spot and getaway day, which could impact their performance. The Cubs, while also on a sandwich spot and getaway day, generally perform better, as shown by their season record of 49-39 compared to the Cardinals' 46-39. This pick is weakened by the LINE_VELOCITY_WITH signal, which has a historical win-rate of 47.5%. [SIGNALS USED] • TRAVEL_B2B_AWAY_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=5027 / 53.3% WR / healthy • MLB_NIGHTGAME_OVER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=4446 / 50.7% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_HOME_BACK — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=2351 / 51.8% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_FINALE_AWAY_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=2351 / 53.5% WR / healthy • MLB_SERIES_GAME3_ROAD_FADE — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=16/20) / n=2243 / 51.7% WR / healthy • MLB_GETAWAY_DAY_UNDER — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=1800 / 51.6% WR / healthy / context-derived • TEAM_AGE_YOUNG_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=568 / 50.9% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • TEAM_AGE_OLD_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=325 / 53.9% WR / healthy • MLB_BP_RESTED_HOME — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=215 / 49.4% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • MLB_BP_RESTED_AWAY — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y~shrunk(liveN=0/20) / n=180 / 50.8% WR / toxic_fadeable / context-derived • LINE_DISPERSION_SOFT — MLB / MLB/BACKFILL_3Y / n=75 / 49.3% WR / unproven • CLV_PRIOR_POSITIVE — MLB / MLB/L30 / n=34 / 58.8% WR / unproven • +1 more signal tag(s)

Result notes

Final: St. Louis Cardinals 3 @ Chicago Cubs 0 · margin -3 vs -1.5

Closing line: -1.5

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